National Party Electorate Seat Overhang Scenarios

Every general electorate is ranked from 1, the seat National is most likely to win, to 64, the least likely. The gold Party Vote line marks how many seats are allocated according to National's party vote. Seats National is predicted to win are shown in blue.

Every seat National wins below the line is an overhang seat: National keeps it, and Parliament grows by one seat. Use the 'WIN' on a seat below the 'Party Vote Line' or drag to change electorate placement to see overhang and total seat changes.

How the ranking was built: seats 1 to 37 are National's strongest seats, in order of their winning majority at the 2023 General Election, carried over to the 2026 electorate names (Port Waikato is placed by its November 2023 by-election majority). Seats 38 to 64 are a qualitative ordering based on 2023 results, the 2025 boundary changes and published seat commentary. The ranking is a starting point: drag any seat to where you think it belongs.

Sources: Electorate names and boundaries from the Representation Commission 2025 boundary review and the PartyMap electorate directory. Majorities from the Electoral Commission official results, 2023 General Election and 2023 Port Waikato by-election. Seat commentary from David Farrar, Kiwiblog and interest.co.nz. MMP scenario modelling is based on NZ Herald Poll of Polls.