Every Māori electorate is ranked from 1, the seat Te Pāti Māori is most likely to win, to 7, the least likely. The gold Party Vote line marks how many seats are allocated according to Te Pāti Māori's party vote. Seats Te Pāti Māori is predicted to win are shown in maroon.
Every seat Te Pāti Māori wins below the line is an overhang seat: the party keeps it, and Parliament grows by one seat. Use the 'WIN' on a seat below the 'Party Vote Line' or drag to change electorate placement to see overhang and total seat changes.
See how the party vote moves the line: MMP seat calculatorSeat polls are Whakaata Māori-Curia polls of 500 Māori voters enrolled in each electorate, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%. Seats are listed in the starting rank order. As at 10 October 2026, three seats had no published 2026 seat poll.
Held by Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, who won by 15,891 votes in 2023.
Poll, 21 Sep to 1 OctRawiri Waititi (Te Pāti Māori) 42%, Tania Waikato (Greens) 16%, Toni Boynton (Labour) 14%, Pāpā Wharewera (TOP) 3%, undecided 18%. Reported by The Spinoff.
Held by Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke (Te Pāti Māori), who won by 2,911 votes in 2023.
Poll, 21 Sep to 1 OctHana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke (Te Pāti Māori) 45%, Kingi Kiriona (Labour) 26%, undecided 17%. Reported by The Spinoff.
Held by Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, who won by 9,162 votes in 2023.
Poll, 14 to 24 SepDebbie Ngarewa-Packer (Te Pāti Māori) 38%, Te Pūoho Katene (Labour) 27%, Coral Raukawa (National) 10%, undecided 18%. Reported by Te Ao Māori News.
Won by Te Pāti Māori by 42 votes in 2023 and held by Oriini Kaipara (Te Pāti Māori) since the September 2025 by-election. Labour's candidate is Kerrin Leoni.
PollNo 2026 seat poll published yet.
Won for Te Pāti Māori by Mariameno Kapa-Kingi by 517 votes in 2023. She is now standing for the Te Tai Tokerau Party, against Aperahama Edwards (Te Pāti Māori), Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) and Hūhana Lyndon (Greens).
PollNo 2026 seat poll published yet.
Won for Te Pāti Māori by Tākuta Ferris by 2,824 votes in 2023. He is now standing as an independent.
Poll, 14 to 24 SepMananui Ramsden (Labour) 30%, Lisa Marie Murch (Te Pāti Māori) 17%, Lisa Te Morenga (Greens) 16%, Tākuta Ferris (Independent) 15%. Reported by Te Ao Māori News.
Held by Cushla Tangaere-Manuel (Labour), who beat Te Pāti Māori by 2,874 votes in 2023. Te Pāti Māori's candidate is Haley Maxwell and the Greens' is Heather Te Au-Skipworth.
PollNo 2026 seat poll published yet.
How the ranking was built: seats 1 to 3 are the seats where Te Pāti Māori led the latest seat poll, in order of its lead. Tāmaki Makaurau and Te Tai Tokerau have no 2026 seat poll and are placed on 2023 results, the 2025 by-election and commentary. Te Tai Tonga is placed sixth because the seat poll has Te Pāti Māori trailing Labour, and Ikaroa-Rāwhiti seventh because Labour holds it. The Party Vote line starts at three seats, matching the MMP scenario modelling on the homepage; recent polls put it between one and four. The ranking is a starting point: drag any seat to where you think it belongs.
Sources: Seat polls by Whakaata Māori-Curia, reported by Te Ao Māori News and The Spinoff. Nationwide party vote from the Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll, October 2026 and published polls from 1News-Verian, RNZ-Reid Research, Roy Morgan and Talbot Mills. 2023 majorities from the Electoral Commission official results, 2023 General Election. Candidates from 1News. Electorate names from the PartyMap electorate directory. MMP scenario modelling is based on NZ Herald Poll of Polls.